Guardian: Russia commanders warned of plans for Ukraine’s Kursk incursion months in advance, seized documents show.

Russian commanders anticipated that Ukraine was planning an incursion into Kursk Oblast months before it occurred, the Guardian reported on Sept. 20, citing a collection of documents that Ukrainian soldiers said they had seized from abandoned Russian positions.
The documents included printed orders and handwritten entries from commanders.
Ukraine launched its cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in early August, claiming to have seized around 100 settlements and over 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles).
Russia appeared to have been taken by surprise by the attack, which allowed Ukrainian forces to quickly fan out across the border and move deep into Russian territory.
According to the seized documents, the authenticity of which the Guardian said they “could not independently verify,” Russian commanders had been cautioning that a potential cross-border breakthrough could occur as far back as January 2024.
While the earlier warnings were largely vague, they grew increasingly more detailed — including specific threats that Ukraine would try to seize the town of Sudzha — a warning that was realized after Ukraine captured it in August.
The seized documents also revealed that Russian commanders had attempted to beef up security by the border in Kursk Oblast and “organize additional exercises for the leadership of units and strongpoints regarding the proper organization of defenses” ahead of a possible Ukrainian attack.
Other revelations from the documents were statements from commanders about the deteriorating morale of Russian soldiers in the area.
“The analysis of the current situation regarding suicides shows that the issue of servicemen dying as a result of suicidal incidents remains tense,” one entry read.
Another entry detailed the specifics of one soldier’s suicide.
“The investigation into the incident determined that the cause of the suicide and death was a nervous and psychological breakdown, caused by his prolonged state of depression due to his service in the Russian army,” the entry read.
Commanders also wrote instructions on how to improve morale, including one suggestion that soldiers should receive daily political lessons “aimed at maintaining and raising the political, moral, and psychological condition of the personnel.”